While for communication reasons using projections and other polling findings... ministers and party officials of ND may state that they will exceed 30%... nevertheless they have examined the scenario... according to a very well-informed source... on how they will handle an electoral outcome with ND below 25%, which signifies the loss of bonus seats...
For example, if ND gets 24.5%, this translates to approximately 80 seats.
The factors they are analyzing
The factors being analyzed at the Maximos Mansion as well as by communications experts and pollsters are what will occur if in the elections, which will probably take place on May 9, 2027... ND falls below 25%, which means clear political disapproval of ND and its governmental policy.
They have therefore examined:
1) What will occur if ND drops below 25%, losing the bonus seats
2) Whether new elections should be called and if there is a risk that citizens, seeing ND in a weakened position, will attempt to intensify the protest vote, meaning that if it goes to a second ballot, ND's percentage will decrease even further
3) How many parties will enter Parliament and how Kasidiaris affects the electoral contest, both regarding the share that the Alliance of Greeks will receive and regarding the expansion of the voter base... especially this is of paramount importance...
4) The question of how many parties will remain outside Parliament is a perennial factor and based on the electoral law... the first party is favored...
Crucial catalyst: The rise in turnout from 5.2 to 6 million voters
The more the denominator increases and the punitive vote remains at elevated levels, the worse... for the leading party...
Citizens will deliver a vote of disapproval, punishment toward the governing faction, and simultaneously there will be an increase in turnout from 5.2 million to 6 million voters...
The increase in voter turnout will depend on the degree of disapproval of the government's policy and certainly on the new unpredictable factor named Kasidiaris, who attracts young people who had not voted in the past or will vote for the first time.
If we accept that the Alliance of Greeks, supported by Kasidiaris (and who will not be a parliamentary candidate), manages to attract many young voters and citizens who were indifferent to elections... increasing the denominator of the voter base... this translates to disaster for ND.
It is not an accurate analysis that Kasidiaris will pull votes from ND... the correct analysis concerns the scale to which the electoral base will grow.
While everyone discusses the extent to which Kasidiaris will reshuffle the deck in the patriotic political spectrum... the accurate question is to what degree the voter base will expand...
Conclusion
As everything indicates, ND, ELAS, PASOK, Alliance of Greeks, Samaras Party, Greek Solution, KKE, Course on Freedom, and Hope for Democracy converge on the 9-party scenario, but there could also be a surprise... since both Voice of Reason and Varoufakis are fighting for 3%.
For ND, the more the voter base increases, the more its percentage will decline...
The punitive vote will be the dominant message of the elections, and certainly, in an environment of extreme political disapproval, if ND stands at, for example, 24.5%, should it proceed to a second round it risks suffering even greater disapproval and losing further ground.
The question of governance... of Greece... is not in danger; there is immense disapproval among citizens toward the figure of Mitsotakis, and this is so widespread across society... that there is no political time left to reverse it.
The game is just starting... the parties are aware, but the Mitsotakis establishment is no easy player, it is a very tough adversary, and much will erupt in the coming months... it will be pre-electoral hell...
And the bombshell will drop on election day or a few days before the elections... especially this latter point holds great significance for both the wary and the unsuspecting.
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